MONDAY, April 14 (HealthDay News) -- New research out of Britain
finds that financial traders who wake up with high levels of the
male hormone testosterone tend to make more money that day,
probably because they feel more daring.
On the flip side, traders with higher levels of the stress
hormone cortisol tend to be more cautious.
"We think that, during bubbles, traders are experiencing
extremely high levels of testosterone, and this is affecting not
only their judgment, but the ability of monetary policy to control
bubbles," said study author John Coates, a research fellow at Judge
Business School and the department of physiology development in
neuroscience at the University of Cambridge in Britain. "Alan
Greenspan spent most of his career trying to stop a bubble and
never succeeded. Why are these things so hard to stop?"
The findings are consistent with previous research, said Dr.
Julio Licinio, chairman of the department of psychiatry and
behavioral sciences at the University of Miami Miller School of
Medicine. ""If testosterone is higher, you push yourself more," he
said.
In fact, testosterone is linked with sexual and competitive
behavior. It rises in athletes before competition, and even more if
they win, while falling in those who lose.
Cortisol, on the other hand, responds to stress and to uncertain
situations.
But how do these hormones respond to financial risk-taking?
To find out, Coates, who once ran a derivatives desk at Deutsch
Bank on Wall Street, recruited 17 London financial traders to
participate in the study. The findings were published in this
week's issue of the
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Thirteen traded mainly European fixed income futures while, for
the remaining four, the main asset traded was the Dax (German stock
index futures) or Eurostox (European Equity Index). Traders ranged
in age from 18 to 38, and annual income ranged from about $24,000
to more than more than $10 million. The nominal size of single
trades ranged from about $200,000 to $1 billion.
For eight consecutive days, twice a day (at 11 a.m. and 4 p.m.),
participants deposited a small amount of saliva into a vial which
was analyzed for testosterone and cortisol levels. These were then
correlated with profit-and-loss figures for the same times of
day.
The study was conducted on a real trading floor, so the risks
and rewards would be equally real. And, as best they could, the
researchers timed it with a period of market volatility (namely one
that immediately preceded and included key U.S. economic
releases).
High testosterone levels were correlated with greater
profitability, while higher cortisol levels (which rose as much as
500 percent during one day) correlated with uncertainty.
"These heightened levels of steroids have implications both for
the economy but also for traders as well," Coates said.
"Chronically high levels of steroids have a debilitating effect on
the body."
As for the financial markets, manipulating traders' hormones so
as to manipulate the economy is out of the question. But, Coates
said, "I think you would find a very different financial system if
there were more women and older men on trading floors."
More information
The
National Library of Medicine has more on
testosterone.